Update to May results XIRR 7.27% not 7.35%
DebInVenice on June 3rd, 2008
Both of the attempted payment pulls have disappeared, no big surprise. Corrected XIRR is 7.27%.
And LendingStats has implemented some enhancements to correctly reflect the value of late loans and the "repurchased" loans from the new agency test. new LS figure is 5.48%
And LendingStats has implemented some enhancements to correctly reflect the value of late loans and the "repurchased" loans from the new agency test. new LS figure is 5.48%
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May results XIRR 7.35%
DebInVenice on June 1st, 2008
As of the end of may, XIRR is 7.35%, Eric's shows 8.33% and LendingStats shows 8.60% (but it looks like that is from 5/27 so LS is behind)
Snapshot of my account:
The total loan value of my 4+ month late accounts stands at $300.83, two of the accounts had payments initiated last week which had the effect of reducing the total by $1.51 & $1.47, it would be great if these payments hold up but I suspect that at least one and possibly both will be reversed. Initiated 6 new loans in May and had one loan pay off.
Looking ahead to the rest of the month, there are two 3 month late loans that will flip to 4+ month late status in a couple of weeks. They have a combined loan value of $91.72 today.
At this point I'm doing just slightly better than break even. Aprox. $55 in interest payments offset by on average 1 additional bad loan each month (really 0.8)
Snapshot of my account:
The total loan value of my 4+ month late accounts stands at $300.83, two of the accounts had payments initiated last week which had the effect of reducing the total by $1.51 & $1.47, it would be great if these payments hold up but I suspect that at least one and possibly both will be reversed. Initiated 6 new loans in May and had one loan pay off.
Looking ahead to the rest of the month, there are two 3 month late loans that will flip to 4+ month late status in a couple of weeks. They have a combined loan value of $91.72 today.
At this point I'm doing just slightly better than break even. Aprox. $55 in interest payments offset by on average 1 additional bad loan each month (really 0.8)
Late loans keep on rolling in
DebInVenice on May 29th, 2008
Not looking too good for this month, two just flipped from late to 1 month late. Here is a screen shot, not a pretty picture.
One of the two is an E link so it isn't too much of a surprise, has made 15 payments and has gone late before but not all the way to 1 month late. Maybe it will come back but I really think that all of my E grade loans are headed for default eventually.
Now the other one is an A link so I'm a bit surprised. Nine payments made on time. The only thing that looks like a danger sign is the $25,000 loan amount.
Trouble with this picture is that I am getting just a bit over $50 in cash interest per month now
, a single new late just about wipes out any profit for the month and two in a month put me in negative territory. Some of this is just paying for lending sins of the past but having a second A go bad (link to the first) in a couple of months has me wondering what is going on. Interest rates for "good" listings seem to be at all time lows, even the increase in listings due to the WebBank relationship doesn't seem to have helped.
But I'm still lending for now but not putting in much new money.
One of the two is an E link so it isn't too much of a surprise, has made 15 payments and has gone late before but not all the way to 1 month late. Maybe it will come back but I really think that all of my E grade loans are headed for default eventually.
Now the other one is an A link so I'm a bit surprised. Nine payments made on time. The only thing that looks like a danger sign is the $25,000 loan amount.
Trouble with this picture is that I am getting just a bit over $50 in cash interest per month now
, a single new late just about wipes out any profit for the month and two in a month put me in negative territory. Some of this is just paying for lending sins of the past but having a second A go bad (link to the first) in a couple of months has me wondering what is going on. Interest rates for "good" listings seem to be at all time lows, even the increase in listings due to the WebBank relationship doesn't seem to have helped.
But I'm still lending for now but not putting in much new money.
Prosper Marketplace Survey Results April 2008
DebInVenice on May 13th, 2008
Prosper has released it's marketplace survey results for April 2008. You can read a copy here or go to Prospers blog and read about it along with comments by Chris Larson (CEO).
Of course they put a positive spin on things and there is some good (but old) news about the arrangement with WebBank and expanding pretty much nation wide. This will certainly expand the number of quality listings at reasonable rates, at least for awhile.
I found the funded loans amount interesting, April 2008 was down $0.2 million from a year ago. Here is a chart from LendingStats that I "borrowed"
There seems to be some tax effect going on, notice the ramp up into April and then the fall off into summer. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over this summer. But the numbers do make me concerned about the viability of Prosper.
But the thing I found really interesting in this PR release was this formula:
Of course they put a positive spin on things and there is some good (but old) news about the arrangement with WebBank and expanding pretty much nation wide. This will certainly expand the number of quality listings at reasonable rates, at least for awhile.
I found the funded loans amount interesting, April 2008 was down $0.2 million from a year ago. Here is a chart from LendingStats that I "borrowed"
There seems to be some tax effect going on, notice the ramp up into April and then the fall off into summer. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over this summer. But the numbers do make me concerned about the viability of Prosper.
But the thing I found really interesting in this PR release was this formula:
Maximum Borrower Rate > Risk Free Rate1 + 3.25% + (Expected Annual Default * 1.5) + Prosper Servicing Fee.Which is provided in the "Attractive risk-return tradeoff" definition. This is the first time I've noticed this. It makes sense sort of, the mysterious 3.25% in the middle is interesting. This seems to be what Prosper assumes as the risk premium for unsecured loans to strangers on the internet :)
April 2008 XIRR is at 6.36%
DebInVenice on May 1st, 2008
LS shows 8.62% and Eric's shows 9.33% (both of these have gone up in the last few days, on Sunday LS was 8.40% and Eric's was 8.89%).
There seems to be some screwup on the Lending screen payments received figures. Take a look at my screen shot from last month and compare the figures.
I had a lot of payoffs this month, added $200 and that plus income funded 12 new loans! To push my loan count up to 107.
Looking forward to debt sale when I'll get pennies back on those 6 4+ month lates.