Housing Crisis Over? Mixed Data Suggests….

P2P-Loans.com has recently noticed a number of smart folks writing about the end of the housing crisis. In two separate articles in the WSJ ("Opinion: The Housing Crisis is Over" and "Is Housing Slump at a Bottom?"). These articles make very valid points with regard to housing starts, low interest rates, etc. What these articles fail to debate in any material fashion is that housing prices relative to disposable income are still extremely high!

This chart from Ned Davis Research (the line graph at the bottom of this page is most relevant) demonstrates that we remain at very high price levels relative to historical data. Ultimately, the value of housing is a function of affordability. When it's all said and done, this is the single most important factor that drives demand for new housing and the price of such housing. For example, the data in the chart suggest that in 2001 (yes, interest rates were in the sub 7% range for 30-year fixed mortgages then as well) the Median New Home Price / Disposable Income ratio was near its 30-year average, which is where it had been for the better part of 15 years. In fact, the ratio had been even lower before that, however this is likely due to the artificially high interest rates of the 1970's and early 1980's.

This dynamic has served to dramatically reduce demand for housing in conjunction with tougher lending standards (fewer buyer approved for new mortgages) and skitish buyers (when will prices stop falling). As a result, housing inventories have spiked to record highs. Accross the US, housing inventories are more than double typical levels, and are as high as 4-5 years worth of inventory (versus a long-term average of 5-6 months) in formerly hot markets such as Florida and California.
According to a recent post at Seeking Alpha, housing inventories are beginning to come down, but remain well above historical averages. Seeking Alpha points out that, at the current sales pace, inventories of new homes will be "back to normal" by the end of 2009. Simply put, we will be in a supply/demand imbalance for the next two years (and this is assuming that the market doesn't overshoot to the downside, which it's been known to do in prior busts - think about when many tech stocks were trading at less than cash value in 2003). The data is similar on the inventories of resales as well. In my estimation, this means we still have a ways to go before calling the end of the housing crisis. I hope I am wrong.

On a side note, the government is trying to push through a MASSIVE bailout program. Generally, when the government makes a move like this, they are too late to the party. Thus, this single fact alone could lead one to believe we are at the end of the housing crisis.

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P2P-Loans.com recently came accross the following listing on Prosper from a fellow blogger (Deepmarket.com) who is seeking a Prosper personal loan to consolidate some debt and begin the process of improving his finances. You can review his loan request for yourself on Prosper, but here is my quick and dirty analysis of this request:

1) The borrower has shown a strong desire to reduce his debt load, which was accumulated durning an entrepreneurial jaunt, and has returned to the "rat race" at a $100k+ salary. His company is a very strong one that focuses on government contract work (we all know that economic slowdowns don't hurt the government, so this job should be pretty safe). The borrower also provides some personal information about himself on his blog, which is comforting to a lender.

2) The borrower sought out the help of a Prosper expert, RateLadder, who is his group leader. RateLadder has been around Prosper for many moons and brings a lot of expertise to the table. While RateLadder doesn't personally know this borrower, his bid and endorsement does improve this listing on the margin.

3) Coverage - this borrower has just enough income to cover his monthly expenses with his salaried position. He also earns some extra cash through his blog (anywhere from $60 per month to $900 per month according to his listing). This income should be available to support any unexpected expenses as well as provide capital to repay revolving debt more quickly. Based on my math, this borrower should be able to cover the new Prosper payment with his salary alone and the blog income will provide a small cushion.

4) $25,000 request - this is a large loan amount to repay fully in a short 3 years (the term of a Prosper personal loan). With an interest rate of 25.45%, that equates to a $1,000 per month payment, which is large. Any bump in the road means that this borrower may choose not to repay this loan (in my experience, borrowers do not make partial payments, but rather stop paying entirely). Lenders can take some comfort in the fact that this borrower has a "public" personality via his blog, thus the public shaming he'd take by being late could be a nice incentive for him to make this loan his #1 priority.

So, what's the sum total of my analysis? The borrower is clearly an intelligent person with a great job in a high-demand area (e.g. if he does lose his job, his skills are in high demand). While the leverage is high, the risk of default of mitigated by the high interest rate being offered (25%+ at the start, but this could get bid down through the course of the auction). As part of a diversified Prosper portfolio, P2P-Loans.com does believe this is a loan worth bidding on and I will support it with a small bid once funds clear my Prosper account. If you are new to Prosper, you can get $25 of free cash for joining Prosper and winning a $50 bid on this loan. That makes it a no-brainer in my opinion.

Is there a tax-payer funded (err... "government sponsored") bailout coming for honeowners? Momentum appears to be building for a broad-based program to bail out folks that bought homes in the boom times and can no longer afford to make their payments (e.g. are approaching or are already in foreclosure proceedings). This has been a topic of much debate. For those that made smart, sound financial decisions (e.g. didn't borrow more than they could afford to pay back, and read the fine print on their mortgage documents, etc.), this seems like it might be unfair since the taxpayers will potentially be bailing out these folks. But, as the outline below reflects, the current debate in Congress revolves around structuring a compromise that enables any eventual program to pay for itself. P2P-Loans.com is encouraged by some of the provisions being discussed (especially the payment of insurance premiums to the FHA and a sharing in any equity gains to homeowners upon a sale). We would hope that the equity gain sharing is substantial and not a pittance given any gain will be made entirely on the backs of tax payers (errr...the "government-sponsored" program). Generally speaking, the government has a terrible track record on projects like this (they underestimate the total costs, botch the execution and mess up a market-based system that works pretty well in the long run).

Here is a summary (from an article at Money.com) of what's being debated (P2P-Loans.com will report back on this issue once a program is passed):

While critics worry that an FHA rescue plan could amount to a bailout, supporters say it's not since everyone involved - lenders, borrowers and mortgage investors - would make a sacrifice.

Lenders get 100% backing from the FHA if a loan goes south. In exchange, the lender takes a "haircut" - reducing the principal owed and converting adjustable-rate loans to fixed-rate mortgages.

Borrowers get to keep their homes, but they would pay a premium to the FHA for the mortgage insurance and they would have to give a small portion of their equity to the FHA when the house is sold. They would also have to show they can afford the newly refinanced loan.

Mortgage investors - while they would sacrifice some future income from loans that have been reduced - would have more confidence investing in the new loans since the refinanced loans will be affordable and the borrower therefore will be more likely to pay them back.

As you may not know, Fair Isaac (what's so fair about them, I don't know) recently updated its FICO score formula and it is being rolled out by the three primary credit agencies. While there are many views on whether these changes are good or bad, the one certainty about all of this is that your credit score is probably going to change. Here's our quick and dirty on how this might affect you:

If your credit is currently being bolstered because you are an authorized user on your parents credit card account, you are probably going to get HAMMERED! One of the largest (and most negative) changes to the formula is the removal of the benefit you get from being on someone elses account as an authorized user. Some credit analysts belive as many of 25% of all Americans with credit could be negatively affected by this one change (that's about 40 million people whose credit score could fall). The good news is that it may take a number of months before all the credit card companies, banks, etc. begin to use this new score (so, get some new credit while you can - P2P-Loans.com has some great credit card offers if you are interested). Getting credit now (while you can still piggyback with daddy's good credit) will allow you to start building your own on-time credit file.

However, there are some positive changes to the scoring methodology as well. For example, the system treats a single large slip up (even as much as 90 days) as an “isolated delinquency” to individuals with a 10-year credit history. Routine late payments of less than 90 days will still damage your report but at least now a legitimate mistake won’t haunt you so severely.

Also under the new system, multiple credit inquiries in a short period of time won’t be so damaging to your credit score, as now they will be weighted less heavily in calculating the overall number.

Finally, the new system rewards borrowers who demonstrate the ability to stay on top of both revolving debt (credit cards, home equity lines of credit) and installment loans (Prosper Loans, student, auto or boat loans, mortgages). Even if you show a wide range of loans but a solid history of paying them on time, expect your score to jump up as well. Go figure, if you pay on time, you have a good score!

Just as a helpful refresher, here is what we do know about the FICO system (even though the exact numbers are closely guarded by Fair Isaac) and what the rough weighting is for certain types of credit data used:

- 35% — punctuality of payment in the past (only includes payments later than 30 days past due)
- 30% — the amount of debt, expressed as the ratio of current revolving debt (credit card balances, etc.) to total available revolving credit (credit limits)
- 15% — length of credit history
- 10% — types of credit used (installment, revolving, consumer finance)
- 10% — recent search for credit and/or amount of credit obtained recently

As you probably know by now, I tend to blog about things that I find curious, interesting or about P2P lending, Prosper, etc. Well, I recently came upon what I felt was a pretty useful collection of some of the best financial sites and tools on the web. So, naturally, I wanted to share it with my loyal fan base (thanks for reading, Mom!). Seriously, I've found that the best way to accumulate savings (and ultimately wealth) is to focus on living within your means and cutting a mean bargain when you make large purchases or other financial decisions (cars, homes, jobs, etc.). That's what I found so cool about these sites/tools.

The source of these links was CNN Money, but I added my own color commentary for your enjoyment.

Your financial life: Track it. Improve it.
New ways to keep tabs on your inflows and outflows can make a big difference to your bottom line. Did you know that saving $0.99 per day beginning when you are 25 years old will get you over $187,000 in cash when you retire (10% annual return assumed)!

Buying a new ride will never be the same
The new resources put you on more equal footing with car dealers. If you buy a car every 5 years (about average) and save $1,000 each time by using these tools, you will save over $100,000 between the ages of 25 and retirement (same 10% assumption)!

Where you can go for advice you can trust (really)
Before betting the farm on some hot new investment, head to these Web communities. Make sure you don't lose the nearly $300,000 I saved you above...=)

Create your own "network effect"
When searching for a new job, it's easier than ever to get on the inside track. Few things will be as important to your financial future as your job. Make sure you are paid what you are worth!

Get the lowest price on anything
Before you plunk down hard-earned cash, you can quickly see which stores are offering the best deals. Remember how much $0.99 per day is worth...?

Know your home's future
Is a neighborhood you're interested caught up in the housing bust? How do the schools rate? This information is a few clicks away.

Click your way to the right school
Get the latest stats and even take a virtual tour to find the college of your dreams. Don't waste your money on an average school. Do your homework (before and during school).

I was in the process of writing a blog posting on this very topic when I stumbled accross this well-written article from Bankrate. So, I thought I would share it with you. Enjoy!

Who wins, who loses in Fed's rate-cutting spree?
By Chris Kissell • Bankrate.com

When the Federal Reserve meets and changes rates, we all have questions: What does it mean to me? Will my mortgage rate go up or down? Is this a good time to refinance? Bankrate is here to help. We've looked at five categories -- mortgages, home equity loans, auto loans, credit cards and certificates of deposit -- to determine if the Fed's moves made you a winner or a loser. Here's a look at mortgages:

Winner: People locked into a good loan rate
When the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate dramatically in January, many soothsayers speculated that mortgage rates would plunge in response. Instead, mortgage rates actually rose significantly, reminding everyone that changes in the federal funds rate do not directly control the direction of mortgage rates.

Now that the Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points (that's 0.75% for you newbies), it's anyone's guess where mortgage rates will go. But Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp., is betting the cost of carrying a mortgage won't be going down substantially any time soon.

"We've seen the lowest for mortgage rates," he says. "We're going to be in the range of 6 percent for the balance of the year."

Time may prove DeKaser right. If so, consider yourself a winner if you locked into a mortgage before January's rate cut, when mortgage rates were near historic lows.

Winner: Homeowners whose loans are about to reset
The Fed's rate cut won't directly affect people with fixed-rate mortgages. But it will lower the payments of most homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages.
This will be a boon for countless Americans with subprime mortgages who fear their next reset could leave them facing foreclosure.

"The Fed's actions in their own right are going to reduce the burden of mortgage resets," DeKaser says. "So that will help directly."

Loser: Fixed-rate mortgage shoppers
Way back in January, times were good for people shopping for a mortgage. Mortgage rates were near historic lows, making it cheaper to borrow.
Of course, not everything was rosy. The U.S. credit crunch and falling home values made it difficult for some borrowers to take advantage of sinking rates. Nonetheless, many homeowners and homebuyers had a window of opportunity to lock into historically low borrowing costs for many years to come.

For now, it appears that window has slammed shut, leaving those who failed to act earlier feeling like losers.

Take action
The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate dramatically in late January. How did mortgage rates respond? They rose, fast and furiously. The moral of the story is simple: Don't make mortgage decisions based on Fed actions, such as this week's rate cut. Instead, take the appropriate action given your individual circumstances.

"Trying to time the market is historically a fruitless exercise," says Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. "If it saves you money to convert your ARM or to lower your fixed rate, then by all means do so."

As you likely know by now, Bank of America announced plans to acquire Countrywide last week in what many have called a "rescue" deal. But, if you are a Countrywide customer, what does this mean to you? I believe it is good news for you and here's why. The price that Bank of America paid for Countrywide indicates that they are assuming a large chunk of Countrywide loans will go bad. Thus, if you are currently behind on your Countrywide mortgage, HELOC, etc. payments, this may be an historic opportunity for you to cut a deal with the new owner/servicer of your loan. The math is quite simple - BoA purchased your loan for a HUGE discount meaning they may have paid $150,000 or less for your $200,000 mortgage/HELOC. Thus, if they cut a new deal with you that gets them $150,000 or more of value (through a new payment plan, a more traditional mortgage product through a refinance, etc.), they win and you win! Countrywide could not have done this as easily because it would have required further write-downs of their assets (mortgages they hold on their balance sheet), which would have precipitated further negative press, loss of investor confidence, and potentially bankruptcy for the company. CNN Money recently published an article on this very topic, which I would encourage you to read.

If you are having trouble with your Countrywide mortgage or if your mortgage is an ARM, Option ARM, or similar, I would strongly encourage you to inquire about your options with the new Countrywide. You may not have another opportunity like this down the road!

If you would like to contact Countrywide (or any other mortgage company), you can refer to the contact information in this blog posting. You may also contact Countrywide's Loss Mitigation Department on the web at:

https://customers.countrywide.com/secure/FHAStart_login254.asp